Where we are in the business cycle: October 2024 – Cait Dourney

Today on the program we speak to Fidelity U.S. Asset Allocation Research Analyst Cait Dourney. As a research analyst, Cait covers mostly economies in the US, China, India, Europe, Canada, and then provides asset allocation recommendations to the multi asset class portfolio managers. Cait discusses the global business cycle, the unexpected normalization in the US labour market, and why Canada could have potential investment opportunities. In terms of the business cycle, Cait says the U.S. is still in an expansion phase, supported by strong corporate and consumer sectors, with mid-cycle dynamics like profit margin growth. Profit margins and credit conditions are improving and the labor market is normalizing, reducing immediate recession risks. And she adds recession risks have decreased globally, and international earnings revisions are now outpacing the U.S., leading to cautious optimism about non-U.S. markets. Cait also touches on Canada’s rate-sensitive economy, inflation concerns, and China’s slowing economy.

Recorded on October 11, 2024.

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