Jurrien Timmer's global macro view – October 7, 2024

Following Friday's U.S. jobs numbers that were well above estimates, a soft landing appeared more within reach than ever. With strong labour numbers and a seemingly resilient economy, is there room for the bull market to continue?  And what about Q3 earnings season? Can earnings maintain market momentum? Back on the show today to take us through these questions and many more, is Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer. Jurrien emphasizes that while earnings are still growing, the acceleration may be slowing, which could affect momentum and stock prices, especially in popular sectors like AI. He notes that we're currently in the mid-stages of the current bull market, but rising interest rates could limit the upside. Jurrien and host Pamela Ritchie also talk about the valuation of emerging markets, particularly India, and the issue of stock dilution. Jurrien explains that while the U.S. market tends to reward shareholders more through buybacks and returns, emerging markets have historically diluted shareholder value, which affects their P/E ratios. Despite this, he believes that emerging markets will remain attractive due to various growth factors.

 

Recorded on October 7th, 2024.

 

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