Jurrien Timmer's global macro view – June 17, 2024

North American equity markets opened mixed this week, and U.S. treasury yields ticked

 higher. Over the weekend, the Minneapolis Fed President teased that the central bank may not cut rates until December. To unpack this, joining the show today to share his latest market thesis is Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer. With the Fed confirming the market's recent tilt towards less easing and later, he notes that the only glaring difference between the Fed and the market is where neutral is at. Jurrien emphasizes the importance of earnings growth in maintaining stock market resilience despite a restrictive Fed policy. He discusses the narrow nature of the current bull market, driven by a few mega-cap stocks, and the challenges of broadening it. He also touches on the potential for non-U.S. markets to outperform, which depends on earnings momentum and currency factors. He also explores the implications of high central bank gold purchases and the role of commodities and other hard assets as hedges against fiscal dominance and inflation.

 

Recorded on June 17th, 2024.

 

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