Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, provides his market outlook. Jurrien studies the data, and shares his findings on LinkedIn and Twitter (@TimmerFidelity). Today he explains that the market has never recovered this much of a decline without marking the start of a new bull market. Also, the stock market is a discounting mechanism that went from pricing in a 2020 earnings decline to pricing in a much smaller earnings decline in 2022. From an earnings perspective, it is pricing a “V-shaped” recovery. Jurrien’s belief is that this rally will not run out of gas until more bears have come out, and that the market is focusing more on the trajectory of the pandemic and the shape of the recovery than on the upcoming U.S. election or tensions with China.
Recorded on May 26, 2020.