Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro, provides his weekly market commentary and global macro update. Jurrien discusses where the markets are going as we enter earnings season, noting that the earnings estimate curve has flattened against an uncertain future. Jurrien also provides a 2020 mid-year recap. So far this year, Jurrien considers the “losers” to be small-cap stocks, value stocks and commodities and, by sector, financials, energy and industrials. The “winners” are long-term government bonds, gold, TIPS and large-cap growth stocks. At a sector level, technology, health care and consumer discretionary have been the front-runners. Jurrien’s analysis of the returns of the S&P 500 Index up to June 30, 2020, shows the Index is at the top of the trend line – meaning it is exactly where it is supposed to be. Until it is proven otherwise, he believes we could be starting another secular bull market, propelled by a need for cash, because of aging demographics, that will drive investors to the cash-yielding equities that have been the market leaders over the past ten years.
Recorded on July 6, 2020.