Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer provides his final global macro update for 2020. Jurrien thinks that even with the number of cities heading back into lockdown, the arrival of a vaccine is allowing markets to see beyond potentially poor market performance. Looking back to March of this year, Jurrien recalls that in the third week of March the market breadth data showed that the number of new highs and lows had reached -80%; he suggested then that it was low enough that the forward return in six to 12 months would be positive – partly due to the market breadth indicator, partly due to the amount of policy response. Now the story for 2021 is the closing of the gap, which will be helped by the vaccine. Jurrien suspects the breadth will expand even more than it has in the past few months, toward small caps, non-U.S. stocks, value, etc.
Recorded on December 14, 2020.