As we move into the second half of 2021, U.S. employers added 850,000 jobs, and average hourly earnings were up, but unemployment ticked up slightly from the previous month. Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, joins us today to help us understand this data and potential policy implications for the Fed. Jurrien speaks with host Pamela Ritchie about the state of the U.S. economy and says payroll and manufacturing numbers have been great recently. However, he believes the market has some indigestion as we transition from the valuation to the earnings phase. During this transition, things can get bumpy, and the Fed will continue the dance with the market on how much policy they can lift without upsetting financial conditions. Jurrien discusses the COVID-19 delta variant noting that it adds to the counter-rotation story as it has the potential to slow down the reopening. Jurrien believes it is a temporary rotation, but it comes down to the stickiness of inflation. Jurrien also shares his thoughts on the OPEC story, the potential for stagflation, and unpacks the global regulatory story. Follow along with Jurrien’s charts on Twitter: @TimmerFidelity
Recorded on July 6, 2021.