Denise Chisholm's sector and factor perspectives – August 8, 2024

Today we check in with Director of Quantitative Market Strategy Denise Chisholm for her sector watch analysis and what recent data is telling us about the broader economy. As the markets find its footing after last week’s global selloff, Denise shares if this was part of a healthy market correction or if it’s a sign that a recession or even possible hard landing is on its way. She says looking at historical data, what you will find is that when there are big spikes in the VIX, especially relative to the increase in credit spreads which run up , but not very much – what you will find is that in the top 2% of all occurrences, even in the top decile, those spikes tend to happen 85% of the time outside of recessions. So, for Denise, this recent sell off was not a typical recessionary signal. Yes, a shock to the market, but based on history, not shocking enough to tip the market into a recession. Denise says the labour market continues to be strong with the participation rate increasing especially those at prime age between 25 and 54 years old. In terms of strong sectors, Denise says financials and health care are showing potential to outperform. Denise says it may be time to lean into those economically sensitive sectors

 

Recorded on August 8, 2024.

 

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